XRP’s Q4 breakout may rest on a single chart signal as whale activity suggests short-term weakness

XRP slipped below the $3 mark amid a recent pullback, but chart patterns and on-chain metrics point to a setup that could precede a stronger upside phase later in the year. Traders watching higher-timeframe price structure see a repeating formation that historically has preceded sustained rallies on this token.

On the daily chart the current price sequence resembles an earlier fractal: after a run higher the token corrected into an area where bids clustered, then recovered into a fresh local high before pulling back again. That same kind of repeating structure is now visible, and its completion would raise the odds of a renewed upward impulse.

Technically, the market has left an imbalance between roughly $2.32 and $2.66. When price revisits and fills such multi-timeframe imbalances, it often clears liquidity and sets a base for the next leg up. If that zone is reclaimed and holds, momentum could accelerate toward the analyst targets discussed below.

Short-term on-chain signals are mixed. Large holders have been net sellers recently, pushing whale flow metrics into negative territory; however, that distribution appears to be nearing its limits. Historical behavior shows whales tend to re-accumulate after extended selling, and previous accumulation ranges were found between about $2.00 and $2.50.

Because of the combination of the fractal setup and a potential reaccumulation window in the ~$2.65–$2.33 area, analysts model upside scenarios of roughly 60–85% into the fourth quarter under favorable conditions, with a first meaningful target near $4.35 and further extension possible if the market clears a key inflection around $3.85. Clearing that inflection would likely push the asset into a price-discovery posture.

Macro tailwinds — for example, a shift toward lower interest rates — could amplify any technical breakout, though the short term remains vulnerable to volatility and seller pressure. Traders should expect choppy moves and watch whether the identified imbalance and the $2.65–$2.33 zone attract fresh bids.

This is a market analysis, not investment advice. All positions carry risk; readers should perform their own due diligence before making trading decisions.