Is Bitcoin Entering a Late Maturity Phase? Onchain Signals Point to an Approaching Cycle Peak
Bitcoin’s recent surge — roughly 700% from a November 2022 low near $15,500 to an all-time high around $124,500 — and several onchain indicators suggest the current bull run is moving into its late stage. Market-data analysts argue that the pattern of gains and onchain behavior resembles previous cycles that culminated in a top within a relatively short timeframe.
Analysts at onchain research firms note that, when compared with prior cycles, the timing of this rally implies the market could reach its cycle peak in approximately two to three months. One key metric behind this view is the share of Bitcoin supply currently in profit: that figure has been elevated for many months, remaining above a long-term threshold for well over 250 days — making it one of the longest stretches on record outside the 2015–2018 cycle.
Long-term holders (those who have held BTC for at least several months) have realized substantial cumulative profits during this run. That level of profit-taking by investors who previously held through downturns is being read as increased sell-side pressure and another indicator consistent with historically late-cycle activity.
Prominent market commentators have used historical halving-cycle timing to estimate a near-term peak window. Some analysts point to mid-September to mid-October 2025 as a plausible period for a cycle high, which would place the peak only weeks away from that point of view.
Price action has shown signs of weakening momentum: Bitcoin recently failed to hold gains above about $114,000, with sellers stepping in near that level. The $112,000–$110,000 zone has acted as short-term support and lines up with common moving-average measures; if that area fails to hold, traders warn the market could retrace toward the $100,000–$90,000 range.
Short-term technical observers say bulls must defend roughly $110,000–$112,000 to avoid a deeper correction. Conversely, should the market sustain those supports, some participants view pullbacks into the low-$100Ks as potential buying opportunities given the longer-term trend.
Taken together, onchain readings of profit concentration, realized gains by long-term holders, and the recent price rejection at major resistance combine to paint a picture of a market that may be entering its late maturity phase. That does not guarantee an imminent collapse; rather, it signals elevated risk of a peak and heightened volatility as market participants decide whether to lock in gains or hold for further upside.
This summary is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their individual risk tolerance before making trading or investment decisions.
