Ether’s August Rally May Precede September Weakness, Historical Data Suggests
Ether has seen a sharp advance during August, but historical patterns point to a potential pullback in September. Data going back to 2016 show that when Ether posts gains in August, the token has often lost ground the following month.
According to historical returns compiled by market-data providers, September has typically been one of Ether’s weaker months — with an average September decline of roughly 6.4% since 2016. There have only been three occasions since 2016 when August produced meaningful gains and was followed by a drop in September, making the recent run-up a reminder of seasonal risk.
Past examples illustrate the swinginess: in 2017 Ether surged sharply in August before falling in September; similar August-to-September reversals occurred in 2020 and 2021, each showing sizable August gains followed by notable September pullbacks. Even so, some years where September was weak were followed by a rebound in the final months of the year.
That historical tendency is coming up against several new market forces that could alter the script. This August has seen substantial inflows into spot Ether exchange-traded funds, while companies and treasury buyers have been accumulating Ether in much larger amounts than in earlier cycles. Reports during the month also highlighted multi-million-dollar buys by institutional players that expanded their Ether holdings materially.
Macro signals complicate the outlook further. Comments from policymakers that were interpreted as increasing the odds of an interest-rate cut have helped lift risk assets, and those dynamics can support continued strength in crypto — but they also introduce volatility around key policy dates.
In short, the historical August→September pattern argues for caution, but current structural and macro developments mean outcomes could differ this time. Traders and investors should weigh seasonal history alongside ETF flows, corporate accumulation and upcoming macro events when sizing positions.
Source: Cointelegraph (original article provided by the user)
