Cardano ETF Approval Chances Surge to 80% Amid Grayscale Moves
The likelihood of a Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF) receiving regulatory approval in the United States has surged, with traders on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket now estimating an 80 percent chance that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will give the green light this year. This increased optimism follows a notable move by Grayscale Investments, a major digital asset manager, which recently registered the Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF in Delaware. The registration, filed on August 12, 2025, is seen as a preliminary yet significant step toward a formal ETF application.
Delaware’s public registry reflects new filings not only for the Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF but also for a Grayscale Hedera Trust ETF, underscoring Grayscale’s strategy to expand its range of altcoin investment products. These statutory trust registrations typically precede the submission of detailed S-1 filings with the SEC and are a routine part of Grayscale’s ETF launch process. While registration alone does not guarantee approval, it signals growing institutional interest in diversified cryptocurrency exposure beyond established options like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Cardano, known for its peer-reviewed development process and scalable blockchain technology, has emerged as a strong candidate for mainstream financial adoption. Earlier this year, the SEC acknowledged NYSE Arca’s 19b-4 filing for the proposed Cardano ETF, marking the start of the official review process. This acknowledgment is viewed as an important early milestone, echoing the path taken by the first spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were approved after extensive regulatory scrutiny.
If approved, a Cardano ETF could provide traditional investors with a regulated means of gaining exposure to ADA, Cardano’s native token, without the technical hurdles of managing digital wallets or private keys. Industry analysts predict the emergence of a standardized framework for crypto ETFs in the near future, potentially paving the way for simultaneous approvals of multiple spot cryptocurrency ETFs.
