Bitcoin Faces a Make-or-Break $13.8B Options Expiry as Bulls Lose Ground
A $13.8 billion Bitcoin options expiry scheduled for Aug. 29 has put traders on edge, with many market participants saying the outcome could determine whether the recent 9.7% pullback was a brief pause or the start of a deeper correction. Bitcoin slipped to around $112,100 on Thursday, marking a six-week low and strengthening bearish momentum ahead of the monthly expiry.
Open interest shows $7.44 billion in call (buy) options versus $6.37 billion in put (sell) contracts, but the ultimate result will depend on Bitcoin’s price at 08:00 UTC on Aug. 29. Deribit accounts for roughly 85% of that market, with CME and OKX holding much smaller shares.
Many bullish bets were placed well above current prices, with a large portion of calls out of the money. Only about 12% of calls sit at $115,000 or below, while roughly 21% of puts are placed at $115,000 or higher, including notable clusters around $112,000. That positioning gives bears clear incentive to push price down ahead of expiry, especially around the $114,000 level where downside pressure could intensify.
Traders say that for bullish strategies to meaningfully win the day, Bitcoin would generally need to trade above $116,000 by the expiry. The $114,000 area is viewed as the critical battleground: holding above it would lessen put-driven pressure, while falling below it would amplify bearish outcomes.
Based on current open-interest distributions, a set of probable outcomes at Deribit maps theoretical net exposures across price bands. Estimates (excluding complex multi-leg strategies) show large put dominance if price finishes between $105,000 and $114,000, smaller but still put-favoring imbalances in the $114,100–$116,000 band, and a shift toward call-favoring nets above $116,000, growing increasingly bullish into the $118,100–$120,000 range.
Macro and cross-market forces could tip the scales. Market participants are watching comments from the US Federal Reserve chair, since any sign of faster or earlier rate cuts could boost risk assets. Recent US jobless-claims data has added to uncertainty around the Fed outlook, and worries about heavy spending in the artificial-intelligence sector have also weighed on risk sentiment after analysts cautioned that rising AI-related expenditures might limit tech firms’ ability to support stock prices with buybacks.
In short, the Aug. 29 options expiry — together with macro headlines and equity-market dynamics — will likely determine whether recent weakness proves temporary or signals a deeper shift in Bitcoin’s trajectory.
This article is a rewritten summary of reporting and analysis originally published by Cointelegraph and is for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice.
